01 / Return source
FREE DECISION TOOL / 01
Investor Decision Checklist.
Test whether one investment decision is clearly defined before you commit capital. This is a thinking tool, not an investment recommendation.
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02 / Return conditions
Do you know what must happen for that return to materialize?
03 / Evidence
Is your thesis supported by reliable evidence rather than a compelling story?
04 / Downside
Can you identify what could cause a permanent loss of capital?
05 / Risk and reward
Does the expected return adequately compensate for the risks you are taking?
06 / Portfolio fit
Do you understand how this decision changes your portfolio concentration and total risk?
07 / Liquidity and horizon
Does the investment match your time horizon and liquidity needs?
08 / Costs and incentives
Have you considered the costs, taxes, incentives and conflicts that could affect the outcome?
09 / Disconfirming evidence
Do you know what evidence would prove your original thesis wrong?
10 / Review rules
Have you defined when you will review, reduce or exit the investment?
Answer all 10 questions to generate your review.
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Decision Journal
Record the thesis, evidence, uncertainty and revision conditions.
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Reset urgency, comparison and social proof before acting.
Second-Order Effects Map
Trace how one event could transfer risk across a portfolio.
Advice Evaluation
Assess expertise, incentives, evidence and decision ownership.
Process–Outcome Review
Judge what was knowable at the time without rewriting history.